Sunday, December 28, 2003
Impact of Electoral Vote Changes
Of states which electoral vote allotments were altered by the 2000 Census, those which gave their electoral votes to Bush in 2000 had a net gain of 7 electoral votes, whereas those who didn't give their votes to Bush experienced a net loss of 7. Those states are solidly Democratic.
The "Gore" states are in little historical danger of not loosing those net 7 electoral votes (good for Bush in 2004).
(purple italics indicate statewide popular vote results within a margin of less than 5%.)
- CA (+1)
- Gore in 2000 (53.45%/41.65%)
- Clinton in 1996 (51.10%/38.21%)
- Clinton in 1992 (46.01%/32.61%)
- CT (-1)
- Gore in 2000 (55.91%/38.44%)
- Clinton in 1996 (52.83%/34.69%)
- Clinton in 1992 (42.21%/35.78%)
- IL (-1)
- Gore in 2000 (54.60%/42.58%)
- Clinton in 1996 (54.31%/36.81%)
- Clinton in 1992 (48.58%/34.34%)
- MI (-1)
- Gore in 2000 (51.28%/46.14%)
- Clinton in 1996 (51.69%/38.48%)
- Clinton in 1992 (43.77%/36.38%)
- NY (-2)
- Gore in 2000 (60.21%/35.23%)
- Clinton in 1996 (59.47%/30.61%)
- Clinton in 1992 (49.73%/33.88%)
- PA (-2)
- Gore in 2000 (50.60%/46.43%)
- Clinton in 1996 (49.17%/39.97%)
- Clinton in 1992 (45.15%/36.13%)
- WI (-1)
- Gore in 2000 (47.83%/47.61%)
- Clinton in 1996 (48.81%/38.48%)
- Clinton in 1992 (41.13%/36.78%)
Among the "Bush states" which gained or lost electoral votes, the results have historically been less solidly Republican over the past three elections - eleven elections went to the Republican candidate by a margin of less than 5%:
- AZ (+2)
- Bush in 2000 (51.02%/44.73%)
- Clinton in 1996 (46.52%/44.29%)
- Bush in 1992 (38.47%/36.52%)
- CO (+1)
- Bush in 2000 (50.75%/42.39%)
- Dole in 1996 (45.80%/44.43%)
- Clinton in 1992 (40.13%/35.87%)
- FL (+2)
- Bush in 2000 (48.85%/48.84%)
- Clinton in 1996 (48.02%/42.32%)
- Bush in 1992 (40.89%/39.00%)
- GA (+2)
- Bush in 2000 (54.67%/42.98%)
- Dole in 1996 (47.01%/45.84%)
- Clinton in 1992 (43.47%/42.88%)
- IN (-1)
- Bush in 2000 (56.65%/41.01%)
- Dole in 1996 (47.13%/41.55%)
- Bush in 1992 (42.91%/36.79%)
- MS (-1)
- Bush in 2000 (57.62%/40.70%)
- Dole in 1996 (49.21%/44.08%)
- Bush in 1992 (49.68%/40.77%)
- NC (+1)
- Bush in 2000 (56.03%/43.20%)
- Dole in 1996 (48.73%/44.04%)
- Bush in 1992 (43.44%/42.65%)
- NV (+1)
- Bush in 2000 (49.52%/45.98%)
- Clinton in 1996 (43.93%/42.91%)
- Clinton in 1992 (37.36%/34.73%)
- OH (-1)
- Bush in 2000 (49.97%/46.46%)
- Clinton in 1996 (47.38%/41.02%)
- Clinton in 1992 (40.18%/38.35%)
- OK (-1)
- Bush in 2000 (60.31%/38.43%)
- Dole in 1996 (48.26%/40.45%)
- Bush in 1992 (42.65%/34.02%)
- TX (+2)
- Bush in 2000 (59.30%/37.98%)
- Dole in 1996 (48.76%/43.83%)
- Bush in 1992 (40.56%/37.08%)
Two of the "Bush 2000" states (Ohio and Nevada) gave Bush their electoral votes by less than 5% in 2000 and voted Democratic in the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections. That's 25 electoral votes in the balance. Ohio has been hit particularly hard in the recession and is as of yet stubborn in regaining the jobs which were lost. Yucca Mountain is in Nevada.
Florida, having given their electoral votes to Bush by a microscopic margin (some say a margin of 1) in 2000 to Bush, to Clinton in 1996 and to GHW Bush in 1992, is also very much in play - for an additional 27 uncertain electoral votes.
Although the electoral changes in the Bush 2000 states vs. the Gore 2000 states are clearly to the advantage of Republicans to the tune of 14 electoral votes, those same states contain 52 of Bush's most precarious electoral votes for 2004.
Historical election results taken from Dave Leip's Atlas of US Presidential Elections, 2004 electoral votes taken from John Edwards' nifty interactive 2004 electoral map.
// posted by Erik @ 12/28/2003 07:10:00 PM
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