Wednesday, June 16, 2004
Bush loosing support in states he won in 2000
Canada's Centre for Puplic Opinion and Democracy puts out short articles containing the results of presidential preference polls on a state level. Dave Liep maintains amazing records of presidential election results (note that his use of blue for Republican and red for Democratic is the reverse of the norm)
One can compare the percentage of poll respondents that answer that they intend to vote for Bush in November to the percentage of the state popular vote and come up with an idea of where Bush has seemed to loose support the most. Of the states and polls I looked at, which were CPOD's first 33 news items of that type, most of the differences fall within the polls' margins of error. There were no states where Bush support had increased outside of the margin of error, but his support had fallen outside of it it Kentucky, West Virginia, Nevada, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, Louisiana, Georgia, Texas, and Montana - all states which Bush won in 2000 except for Maine.
The state polls were taken by various pollsters at various times in June and May.
| State | May or June 2004 | 2000 Popular vote | Change |
| KY | 52% | 56.50% | -4.5 |
| MN | 43.6% | 45.5% | -1.9 |
| IL | 39% | 45.5% | -1.9 |
| PA | 46% | 46.43% | +0.43 |
| WV | 43.5% | 51.92% | -8.42 |
| OR | 44.6% | 46.52% | -1.92 |
| FL | 47.9% | 48.85% | -0.95% |
| NH | 46% | 48.07% | -2.07% |
| WA | 44.3% | 44.56% | -0.26% |
| MA | 33% | 32.5% | +0.5% |
| MI | 45.1% | 46.14% | -1.04% |
| NM | 48.1% | 47.85% | +0.25% |
| IA | 47.6% | 48.22% | -0.62% |
| MO | 48.6% | 50.42% | -1.82% |
| OH | 49.1% | 49.97% | -0.87% |
| NV | 43.8% | 49.52% | -5.88% |
| AR | 51.2% | 51.31% | -0.11% |
| AR | 49% | 56.83% | -7.83% |
| NJ | 39% | 40.29% | -1.29% |
| ME | 39% | 43.97% | -4.97% |
| WI | 44.5% | 47.61% | -3.11% |
| AL | 57% | 56.47% | +0.43% |
| OK | 58% | 60.31% | -2.31% |
| NC | 48% | 56.03% | -8.03% |
| SC | 49% | 56.83% | -7.83% |
| VA | 47% | 52.47% | -5.47% |
| LA | 48% | 52.55% | -4.55% |
| GA | 48% | 54.67% | -6.67% |
| CA | 41% | 41.65% | -0.65% |
| NY | 34% | 35.23% | -1.23% |
| TX | 55% | 59.3% | -4.3% |
| MT | 53% | 58.44% | -5.44% |
| TN | 49.3% | 51.15% | -1.85% |
// posted by Erik @ 6/16/2004 11:57:00 PM
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