Fear of Clowns

"Faith may be defined briefly as an illogical belief in the occurrence of the improbable."
- H. L. Mencken
gozz@gozz.com

Thursday, August 26, 2004

How are the horses holding up? 

Yesterday, the LA Times reported that Kerry nationally trailed Bush 46% to 49%, losing his lead of 2 percentage points from late July: "resident Bush heads into next week's Republican National Convention with voters moving slightly in his direction since July amid signs that Sen. John F. Kerry has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam, a Times poll has found."

A new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll also reported a slip in Kerry's advantage nationally partially due to "a sharp drop in people who said Kerry's military service would make them more likely to support him."

It's been my contention that the Swift Boat Vets for [Bush]'s effort has likely only served to further polarize the electorate and driven voters away from Bush if anything. To confirm the hypothesis, one would have to show that since the group's efforts have become popularized, states in which Bush already lead had seen an increased lead and states who already supported Kerry had shown a like increase.

The method I used is described in detail below the table. In summary, I found the difference between Bush and Kerry preference numbers on a state level and compared them to the change between the most recent poll and the most recent poll on or prior to August 5 - the day Swift Boat Vets for Truth aired their first ad. The polls had to be conducted by the same entity.

There are 31 states for which poll data is available to make the analysis:

In other words, my hypothesis bore out: Bush is generally more ahead in hates which favor him, the same for Kerry. Colorado went from a Bush lead to a tie.

The results of the method of analysis indicate that Kerry may be in trouble in Michigan and California for a total of 72 electoral votes, and that Bush may be in trouble in Florida and Colorado for a total of 27 total electoral votes. California matters lots. If the sharp drop reflected in CA is close to accurate, Kerry should feel quite nervous about the state.

As these numbers only reflect the differences between two polls and that the states which appear to be tossups are close to or within the margins of error, I've put together a page of the same results sorted by different columns. I'll conduct a similar project in the near future if enough state level polls change so as to warrant it. Here are the results sorted by current difference.

State Kerry Bush Current
difference
Net change
Kerry
last poll - current poll MoE Pollster
MD 53 40 +13 -1 6/9 - 8/15 3.5 - 3.5 Gonzolez Research
IL 52 38 +12 -2 5/24 - 8/16 4.0 - 4.0 Market Shares Corp.
CT 49 39 +10 -11 6/28 - 8/17 3.2 - 3.0 Quinnipiac University
OR 54 43 +9 +2 7/30 - 8/21 3.9 - 3.7 Zogby
NY 53 45 +8 0 6/14 - 8/9 2.6 - 2.9 Quinnipiac University
WA 51 43 +8 0 8/2 - 8/17 4.2 - 4.1 Survey USA
NH 51 43 +8 0 1/30 - 8/21 4.2 - 4.3 Zogby
PA 52 44 +8 +1 7/30 - 8/21 3.2 - 3.3 Zogby
IA 52 45 +7 +5 7/30 - 8/19 4.4 - 4.4 Zogby
NM 44 50 +6 +5 7/26 - 8/21 4.4 - 4.4 Zogby
WI 51 46 +5 +3 7/30 - 8/24 3.9 - 3.9 Zogby
MN 50 45 +5 0 7/30 - 8/21 3.8 - 3.8 Zogby
MI 48 45 +3 -8 8/4 - 8/24 4.0 - 4.3 Survey USA
CA 49 46 +3 -10 7/25 - 8/18 3.8 - 4.1 Survey USA
TN 50 48 +2 +1 7/30 - 8/21 3.4 - 3.5 Zogby
NV 48 46 +2 +3 7/36 - 8/21 4.4 - 4.4 Zogby
CO 47 47 0 +5 4/14 - 8/19 4.5 - 4.5 Rasmussen
MO 49 49 0 +1 7/26 - 8/21 3.2 - 3.4 Zogby
AR 46 48 -2 -4 7/8 - 8/21 4.3 - 4.5 Zogby
FL 47 49 -2 +4 7/31 - 8/24 4.0 - 4.0 Rasmussen
VA 45 49 -4 + 1 7/8 - 8/22 3.8 - 3.7 Survey USA
OH 46 51 -5 0 7/30 - 8/21 4.5 - 2.6 Zogby
NC 45 51 -6 +1 7/26 - 8/15 3.3 - 4.1 Survey USA
WV 42 49 -7 -9 7/30 - 8/21 4.0 - 4.1 Zogby
AZ 39 47 -8 -9 7/18 - 8/22 5.0 - 4.9 AZ State University
SC 42 53 -11 -4 7/12 - 8/18 5.0 - 3.7 Survey USA
IN 40 52 -12 +4 6/24 - 8/18 4.0 - 4.0 Bellwether Research
KY 39 56 -17 -7 7/26 - 8/15 3.8 - 3.8 Survey USA
GA 38 54 -18 -5 8/2 - 8/18 3.0 - 3.0 Strategic Vision
OK 38 57 -19 +7 6/23 - 8/18 3.9 - 4.1 Survey USA
AL 37 58 -21 -2 5/4 -8/23 3.7 - 4.1 Survey USA
  • The numbers compared must me by a polling organization which,
    • Has conducted a poll since August 5, the first day Swift Boat Vets for Truth ran an ad
    • Has conducted a poll on or prior to August 5
    • Is reputable enough in the opinion of RealClearPolitics.com to be included in their compendium of state level polls.
  • The columns labeled "Kerry" and "Bush" reflect the results of the most recent poll.
  • The backgrounds of the "state" column reflect the category the state is in according to Dave Leip's analytical method:
    • If "Strong Bush", it appears red
    • If "Strong Kerry", it appears blue
    • If "Lean Bush", "Slight Bush", "Lean Kerry", or "Slight Kerry", or "tossup", it appears purple
  • The numbers reflected in the "Bush" and "Kerry" columns reflect the result of the most recent poll taken after August 5, 2004
  • The background of the "Current Difference" column appears
    • Blue if Kerry's lead is greater than the most recent poll's margin of error
    • Red if Kerry's net change is less than the most recent poll's margin of error
    • Gray if Kerry's net change is within the most recent poll's margin of error
  • The "Net Change Kerry" column is the sum of the differences between
    • Kerry's gain between the most recent poll and immediately prior poll by the same polling organization, and,
    • Bush's loss between the most recent poll and immediately prior poll by the same polling organization
  • The background of the "Net Change Kerry" column appears
    • Blue if Kerry's net change is greater than the lessor of the two polls' margin of error
    • Red if Kerry's net change is less than the lessor of the two polls' margin of error
    • Gray if Kerry's net change is within the lessor of the two polls' margin of error

For the following states, a pollster has not conducted surveys both on or before August 5 and after August 5:

State Kerry Bush Current net
difference
Net change
Kerry
last poll - current poll MoE Pollster
MA 60 31 +29 +4 5/31 - 6/30 5.0 - 5.0 Rasmussen
NJ 49 39 +10 -3 8/2 - 9/23 3.1 - 3.3 Quinnapac University
ME 48 44 +4 +3 6/30 - 7/31 5.0 - 5.0 Rasmussen
TX 37 55 -18 -1 5/31 - 6/30 3.0 - 3.0 Rasmussen
KS 36 56 -20 -2 3/4 - 6/28 4.1 - 4.5 Survey USA
UT 22 67 -45 -14 2/19 - 5/12 5.0 - 3.2 Desert News

In the following states only one poll is available:

State Kerry Bush Current net
difference
Net change
Kerry
last poll - current poll MoE Pollster
DE n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
RI 49 25 +24 n/a 6/14 5.0 Brown University
VT 51 36 +15 n/a 4/30 n/a Research 2000
HI 48 41 +7 n/a 8/3 3.7 Star-Bulletin
LA 38 54 -16 n/a 7/14 4.0 MRI
SD 35 51 -16 n/a 5/22 3.5 KELO
MT 33 53 -20 n/a 5/26 4.0 Mason Dixon
AK 33 56 -23 n/a 6/30 4.0 Dittman Research
MS 30 61 -29 n/a 4/21 5.8 Missippi State University
ID 55 25 -30 n/a n/a n/a Greg Smith & Asc
NE n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
WY n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Post a Comment

Comments:

 

Post a Comment

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?
Listed on BlogShares