Fear of Clowns

"Faith may be defined briefly as an illogical belief in the occurrence of the improbable."
- H. L. Mencken
gozz@gozz.com

Wednesday, September 22, 2004

Electoral vote update 

The American Research Group has published the results of a national poll which found Kerry leading Bush in electoral votes 270 (the minimum needed to win) to 253, with Wisconsin and West Virginia tied. The polls were taken at different times, but they include the first poll of Delaware, the only "bellwether" state other than Missouri with a popular vote coinciding with the national popular vote from 1960 onward (although it's agreement with Gore's winning of the popular vote in 2000 was just a curiosity as he lost the electoral vote). Kerry is up by 9 in Delaware according to the results of this poll.

The poll shows Bush up by 6 in the other long standing bellwether of Missouri, and up by 2 in Ohio, a bellwether since 1964.

As it's agreed that this election is extremely unusual, bellwether states are things that are just interesting to think about, and in my opinion all polls this election are mainly beneficial only to reveal trends and give an extremely wide estimation of what the actual vote will be. There's lots of states with heterosexual superiority ballot initiatives on them which may turn out more people that will check off Bush by default, lots of anger at Bush which will bring out "unlikely voters" to vote against Bush, and in the case of Alabama, there's a ballot initiative to remove the poll tax and repeal school segregation.

Besides, the polls have never been conclusively accurate within their margins of error. and things can shift rapidly, even up to Election day.

A few days ago started work on enumerating aspects of November 2 ballots which aren't taken into consideration in polls - senate and gubernatorial races, heterosexual superiority amendments - but got called away by Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow. Hopefully, I'll get that together soon.

In national poll news, the Bush and Kerry are approximately at the same place they were a month ago according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. I'm not keeping track of that poll on my chart, but have updated the chart of electoral advantage trend with the new data from the (partisan) Democracy Corps poll, which shows Bush and Kerry approximately where they were a week ago.

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