Friday, October 29, 2004
Winning with 23% of the popular vote
All votes are not equal. Due to the arcane way we select a president, a vote in Wyoming holds about four times the weight of a vote in Florida.
Below is an illustration of how a candidate can win the presidency with 22.97% of the popular vote. It's a far-fetched scenario, but only to illustrate the bizarre way we vote for a president. The calculation assumes several things,
- 100% of the voting age population votes
- There are only two candidates running
- The winner of the election receives the minimum number of votes to carry the states they win
- The loser receives 100% of the votes in the states they win
I used the US Census' 2003 estimates of state populations. The 18+ estimated population total was 217,766,271. The rest of the pertinent numbers are in the table - the states are listed in descending order of how much a single vote "weighs" in each state.
Winner: |
||||
| State | Voting age population | Electoral Votes | Voters per electoral vote | Votes needed to win |
| Wyoming | 380169 | 3 | 126723 | 190085 |
| District of Columbia | 454981 | 3 | 151660.333 | 227491 |
| Alaska | 459529 | 3 | 153176.333 | 229765 |
| Vermont | 481661 | 3 | 160553.667 | 240831 |
| North Dakota | 487010 | 3 | 162336.667 | 243505 |
| South Dakota | 568883 | 3 | 189627.667 | 284442 |
| Delaware | 618649 | 3 | 206216.333 | 309325 |
| Rhode Island | 832115 | 4 | 208028.75 | 416058 |
| Montana | 701847 | 3 | 233949 | 350924 |
| Hawaii | 960466 | 4 | 240116.5 | 480233 |
| New Hampshire | 981456 | 4 | 245364 | 490728 |
| Idaho | 994305 | 4 | 248576.25 | 497153 |
| Maine | 1018982 | 4 | 254745.5 | 509491 |
| Nebraska | 1298451 | 5 | 259690.2 | 649226 |
| New Mexico | 1372580 | 5 | 274516 | 686290 |
| West Virginia | 1419453 | 5 | 283890.6 | 709727 |
| Iowa | 2250634 | 7 | 321519.143 | 1125317 |
| Utah | 1608540 | 5 | 321708 | 804270 |
| Nevada | 1659757 | 5 | 331951.4 | 829879 |
| Kansas | 2028426 | 6 | 338071 | 1014213 |
| Arkansas | 2043701 | 6 | 340616.833 | 1021851 |
| Mississippi | 2120013 | 6 | 353335.5 | 1060007 |
| Louisiana | 3318779 | 9 | 368753.222 | 1659390 |
| Oklahoma | 2633289 | 7 | 376184.143 | 1316645 |
| Alabama | 3392779 | 9 | 376975.444 | 1696390 |
| Colorado | 3397937 | 9 | 377548.556 | 1698969 |
| Connecticut | 2647997 | 7 | 378285.286 | 1323999 |
| Minnesota | 3810605 | 10 | 381060.5 | 1905303 |
| Oregon | 2710424 | 7 | 387203.429 | 1355212 |
| Kentucky | 3123645 | 8 | 390455.625 | 1561823 |
| South Carolina | 3123648 | 8 | 390456 | 1561824 |
| Missouri | 4297142 | 11 | 390649.273 | 2148571 |
| Tennessee | 4447269 | 11 | 404297.182 | 2223635 |
| Arizona | 4061499 | 10 | 406149.9 | 2030750 |
| Massachusetts | 4946304 | 12 | 412192 | 2473152 |
| Maryland | 4130817 | 10 | 413081.7 | 2065409 |
| Wisconsin | 4139405 | 10 | 413940.5 | 2069703 |
| Indiana | 4591742 | 11 | 417431.091 | 2295871 |
| North Carolina | 6319805 | 15 | 421320.333 | 3159903 |
| Total | 282 | 50028574 | ||
Loser: |
||||
| State | Voting age population | Electoral Votes | Voters per electoral vote | Votes needed to win |
| Washington | 4634864 | 11 | 421351.273 | 2317432 |
| Georgia | 6387956 | 15 | 425863.733 | 3193978 |
| Virginia | 5587563 | 13 | 429812.538 | 2793782 |
| Ohio | 8620509 | 20 | 431025.45 | 4310255 |
| New Jersey | 6506779 | 15 | 433785.267 | 3253390 |
| Michigan | 7541065 | 17 | 443592.059 | 3770533 |
| Illinois | 9422938 | 21 | 448711.333 | 4711469 |
| Pennsylvania | 9534761 | 21 | 454036.238 | 4767381 |
| Texas | 15878347 | 34 | 467010.206 | 7939174 |
| New York | 14657367 | 31 | 472818.29 | 7328684 |
| California | 26064483 | 55 | 473899.691 | 13032242 |
| Florida | 13094945 | 27 | 484997.963 | 6547473 |
| Total | 117709150 | 256 | ||
// posted by Erik @ 10/29/2004 04:47:00 PM
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