Fear of Clowns

Prediction time.

Kerry:

• HI, WA, CA, IL, NY, VT, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC and almost certainly NH and PA for a safe 208.

Bush:

• AK, UT, ID, MT, ND, SD, WY, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, MI, MS, AL, GA, SC, TN, KY, IN, and almost certainly MO, AR, NC, AZ, CO and VA for a safe 222.

After that, the closest states are OH and FL. If Bush wins both but Kerry wins the rest - OR, NV, NM, MN, IA, WI and MI - it's a tie - 269-269. However if he wins both OH and FL, it seems likely he'd also win NM and/or NV.

The citizens of OH, OR and MI are voting wether to amend their constitutions so as to codify a sense of heterosexual superiority - of those, MI would have the most fundamentalist Christians to be drawn to the polls, most of which would vote for Bush, but not in as large proportions as the white Southern Baptist type of right-wing fundamentalist Christians. If Bush does take MI and Kerry takes Florida, it sets up three other possibilities for an electoral tie: if Bush wins NM and NV or one of WI or MN.

But I do think Kerry will take MI and FL which means if he also wins MN and WI, or any three of the rest: MN, WI, IA, AZ, NV and OR, he wins - possibly by 1 electoral vote.

That scenario also sets up six other possibilities for electoral ties - it will be 269-269 if Kerry wins:

• WI, IA
• WI, OR
• MN, IA
• MN, OR
• NV, NM, IA
• NV, NM, OR

But here's my stab at it: Kerry will win MN, WI, OR, NM and IA, Bush gets NV. Kerry wins 296-242.

Popular vote prediction: Kerry: 51%, Bush 45%, Badnarik 2%, Nader 1%, Peroutka 1%.

// posted by Erik @ 11/01/2004 11:34:00 PM
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