Thursday, September 01, 2005
Idiot right-wingers so wildly off the mark, it's funny
Jimmy Glassman writes,
Giant hurricanes are rare, but they are not new. And they are not increasing. To the contrary. Just go to the website of the National Hurricane Center and check out a table that lists hurricanes by category and decade. The peak for major hurricanes (categories 3,4,5) came in the decades of the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s, when such storms averaged 9 per decade. In the 1960s, there were 6 such storms; in the 1970s, 4; in the 1980s, 5; in the 1990s, 5; and for 2001-04, there were 3. Category 4 and 5 storms were also more prevalent in the past than they are now. As for Category 5 storms, there have been only three since the 1850s: in the decades of the 1930s, 1960s and 1990s.
Scientifically-minded people like to know where the data being cited comes from. In this case, the National Hurricane Center cites that data from a NOAA report titled (emphasis added) THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE UNITED STATES HURRICANES FROM 1900 TO 2000, Updated October 2001. The first sentence of the report reads, (more unnecessary emphasis),
This version of the Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes from 1900 to 2000 extends the work of Hebert et al. (1997) through the 2000 season.
Yes, indeed, the hurricanes Glassman refers to in "and for 2001-04, there were 3" cite the three category 3, 4 or 5 storms in the 2000 hurricane season alone. Those were,
- Hurricane Alberto, category 3, August 4-23, 2000
- Hurricane Isaac, category 4, September 21-October 1, 2000
- Hurricane Keith, catregory 4, September 28-October 6, 2000
Since the 2000 season, we've had 4 category 3, 4 or 5 storms in the 2001 season,
- Hurricane ERIN, category 3, 01-15 SEP
- Hurricane FELIX, category 3, 07-19 SEP
- Hurricane IRIS, category 4, 04-09 OCT
- Hurricane MICHELLE, category 4, 29 OCT-06 NOV
Two in the 2002 season,
- Hurricane ISIDORE, category 3, 14-26 SEP
- Hurricane LILI category 3, 21 SEP-04 OCT
Three in the 2003 season,
- Hurricane FABIAN, category 4, 27 AUG-08 SEP
- Hurricane ISABEL, category 5, 06-19 SEP
- Hurricane KATE, category 3, 25 SEP-07 OCT
Six in the 2004 season,
- Hurricane ALEX, category 3, 31 JUL-06 AUG
- Hurricane CHARLEY, category 4, 09-15 AUG
- Hurricane FRANCES, category 4, 25 AUG-09 SEP
- Hurricane IVAN, category 5, 02-24 SEP
- Hurricane JEANNE, category 3, 13-28 SEP
- Hurricane KARL, category 4, 16-24 SEP
And so far in the 2005 season, we've so far had three category 3,4 or 5 storms,
- Hurricane DENNIS, category 4, 05-13 JUL
- Hurricane EMILY, category 4, 11-21 JUL
- Hurricane KATRINA, category 5, 23-31 AUG
So, to correct Glassman, he ought to have wrote,
The peak for major hurricanes (categories 3,4,5) came in the decades of the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s, when such storms averaged 9 per decade. In the 1960s, there were 6 such storms; in the 1970s, 4; in the 1980s, 5; in the 1990s, 5 ...
... but now, just halfway through the decade of 2000's we've already had 21 such storms.
Embarassingly, Glassman finishes off his wildly distorted article by exploiting his misuse/misunderstanding of data to try to score political points,
But environmental extremists do not want to be bothered with the facts. Nor do they wish to mourn the destruction and death wreaked on a glorious city. To their everlasting shame, they would rather distort and exploit.
Over at Powerline, Assrocket cites Glassman's idiocy and concurs,
Of course, facts have never stood in the Left's way. But there is something especially repellent about efforts by left-wingers like Robert Kennedy Jr. to make political hay out of the current natural disaster.
// posted by Erik @ 9/01/2005 09:16:00 AM
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Comments:
Of the 21 cat 3-5 hurricanes from 2000-2004, only 7 actually hit U.S., and only 3 of those (based on the data rom the site you point to) could still be considered cat 3 and above when they hit land.
Later,
1. Follow the link to the data Glassman cites: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml
2. Scroll down to link "This is taken from ..." http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/index.html
3. Read the title and first sentence. Confirm that latest hurricane season studied was 2000.
That comes from http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/index scroll down to Part II question 12.
You mentioned 3 cat 3-5 hurricanes for that year, but none of them hit the U.S.
I suspect (although it is admittedly not clear) that the 2001-2004 data is a recent addition to the table to bring it current to today.
But go back to the hurricane charts YOU point to. Go to the list of cat 3-5 hurricanes. Then tell me how many of those a) actually hit the U.S., and b) were still cat 3 or above when they hit.
Later,
If that was the intention, it's wrong. The data is about most costly hurricanes, trying to use that data to back up the claim "Giant hurricanes are rare, but they are not new. And they are not increasing. To the contrary." is silly in itself.
Anyway, there have already been three hurricanes this season alone that made landfall at cat. 3 or greater. Whether they make landfall in the US is more impertinent than whether they make landfall as a category 'whatever'. Glassmann doesn't know what he's writing about ... all these major (max 3,4,5) hurricane made landfall as such:
2001:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Iris
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Michelle
2002:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Lili
2003:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isabel
2004:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ivan
2005:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dennis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Emily
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina
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