Fear of Clowns

"Faith may be defined briefly as an illogical belief in the occurrence of the improbable."
- H. L. Mencken
gozz@gozz.com

Wednesday, December 31, 2003

We liberated the central front! 

"People who live in Iraq deserve the same freedom that you and I enjoy here in America. (Applause.) And after years of tyranny and torture, that freedom has finally arrived. (Applause.)"
George Bush, April 28, 2003
www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/04/20030428-3.html

It seems that Iraq is so free, they have much freedom to spare; they won't miss the little bit of freedom and security we need to borrow for ourselves:

"...we are fighting terrorists in Iraq so that we will not have to face them and fight them in the streets of our own cities."
George Bush, October 4, 2003
www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/10/20031004.html

"Iraq is now the central front in the war on terrorism, and the highest priority for this President is the safety and security of the American people. And he will continue to wage this war on terror because of the importance that it has."
Scott McClellan, October 8, 2003
www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/10/20031008-3.html

Why, John? 

There have to be reasons why John Ashcroft recused himself (December 30) as well as why he waited so long.

Trying to define the possibilities:

Sunday, December 28, 2003

Impact of Electoral Vote Changes 

Of states which electoral vote allotments were altered by the 2000 Census, those which gave their electoral votes to Bush in 2000 had a net gain of 7 electoral votes, whereas those who didn't give their votes to Bush experienced a net loss of 7. Those states are solidly Democratic.

The "Gore" states are in little historical danger of not loosing those net 7 electoral votes (good for Bush in 2004).

(purple italics indicate statewide popular vote results within a margin of less than 5%.)

  • CA (+1)
    • Gore in 2000 (53.45%/41.65%)
    • Clinton in 1996 (51.10%/38.21%)
    • Clinton in 1992 (46.01%/32.61%)
  • CT (-1)
    • Gore in 2000 (55.91%/38.44%)
    • Clinton in 1996 (52.83%/34.69%)
    • Clinton in 1992 (42.21%/35.78%)
  • IL (-1)
    • Gore in 2000 (54.60%/42.58%)
    • Clinton in 1996 (54.31%/36.81%)
    • Clinton in 1992 (48.58%/34.34%)
  • MI (-1)
    • Gore in 2000 (51.28%/46.14%)
    • Clinton in 1996 (51.69%/38.48%)
    • Clinton in 1992 (43.77%/36.38%)
  • NY (-2)
    • Gore in 2000 (60.21%/35.23%)
    • Clinton in 1996 (59.47%/30.61%)
    • Clinton in 1992 (49.73%/33.88%)
  • PA (-2)
    • Gore in 2000 (50.60%/46.43%)
    • Clinton in 1996 (49.17%/39.97%)
    • Clinton in 1992 (45.15%/36.13%)
  • WI (-1)
    • Gore in 2000 (47.83%/47.61%)
    • Clinton in 1996 (48.81%/38.48%)
    • Clinton in 1992 (41.13%/36.78%)

Among the "Bush states" which gained or lost electoral votes, the results have historically been less solidly Republican over the past three elections - eleven elections went to the Republican candidate by a margin of less than 5%:

  • AZ (+2)
    • Bush in 2000 (51.02%/44.73%)
    • Clinton in 1996 (46.52%/44.29%)
    • Bush in 1992 (38.47%/36.52%)
  • CO (+1)
    • Bush in 2000 (50.75%/42.39%)
    • Dole in 1996 (45.80%/44.43%)
    • Clinton in 1992 (40.13%/35.87%)
  • FL (+2)
    • Bush in 2000 (48.85%/48.84%)
    • Clinton in 1996 (48.02%/42.32%)
    • Bush in 1992 (40.89%/39.00%)
  • GA (+2)
    • Bush in 2000 (54.67%/42.98%)
    • Dole in 1996 (47.01%/45.84%)
    • Clinton in 1992 (43.47%/42.88%)
  • IN (-1)
    • Bush in 2000 (56.65%/41.01%)
    • Dole in 1996 (47.13%/41.55%)
    • Bush in 1992 (42.91%/36.79%)
  • MS (-1)
    • Bush in 2000 (57.62%/40.70%)
    • Dole in 1996 (49.21%/44.08%)
    • Bush in 1992 (49.68%/40.77%)
  • NC (+1)
    • Bush in 2000 (56.03%/43.20%)
    • Dole in 1996 (48.73%/44.04%)
    • Bush in 1992 (43.44%/42.65%)
  • NV (+1)
    • Bush in 2000 (49.52%/45.98%)
    • Clinton in 1996 (43.93%/42.91%)
    • Clinton in 1992 (37.36%/34.73%)
  • OH (-1)
    • Bush in 2000 (49.97%/46.46%)
    • Clinton in 1996 (47.38%/41.02%)
    • Clinton in 1992 (40.18%/38.35%)
  • OK (-1)
    • Bush in 2000 (60.31%/38.43%)
    • Dole in 1996 (48.26%/40.45%)
    • Bush in 1992 (42.65%/34.02%)
  • TX (+2)
    • Bush in 2000 (59.30%/37.98%)
    • Dole in 1996 (48.76%/43.83%)
    • Bush in 1992 (40.56%/37.08%)

Two of the "Bush 2000" states (Ohio and Nevada) gave Bush their electoral votes by less than 5% in 2000 and voted Democratic in the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections. That's 25 electoral votes in the balance. Ohio has been hit particularly hard in the recession and is as of yet stubborn in regaining the jobs which were lost. Yucca Mountain is in Nevada.

Florida, having given their electoral votes to Bush by a microscopic margin (some say a margin of 1) in 2000 to Bush, to Clinton in 1996 and to GHW Bush in 1992, is also very much in play - for an additional 27 uncertain electoral votes.

Although the electoral changes in the Bush 2000 states vs. the Gore 2000 states are clearly to the advantage of Republicans to the tune of 14 electoral votes, those same states contain 52 of Bush's most precarious electoral votes for 2004.

Historical election results taken from Dave Leip's Atlas of US Presidential Elections, 2004 electoral votes taken from John Edwards' nifty interactive 2004 electoral map.

Saturday, December 27, 2003

Draft Hollywood! 

Hollywood is progressive! Why not give conservatives something to really complain about ... like dozens of prime-time TV ads featuring Hollywood's highest disparaging Washington's worst?

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