It's been my contention that the Swift Boat Vets for [Bush]'s effort has likely only served to further polarize the electorate and driven voters away from Bush if anything. To confirm the hypothesis, one would have to show that since the group's efforts have become popularized, states in which Bush already lead had seen an increased lead and states who already supported Kerry had shown a like increase.
The method I used is described in detail below the table. In summary, I found the difference between Bush and Kerry preference numbers on a state level and compared them to the change between the most recent poll and the most recent poll on or prior to August 5 - the day Swift Boat Vets for Truth aired their first ad. The polls had to be conducted by the same entity.
There are 31 states for which poll data is available to make the analysis:
- Kerry gained ground or stayed even in 11 states in which he currently leads: OR, NY, WA, NH, PA, IA, NM, WI, MN, TN, and NV
- Kerry lost ground in 5 states which Kerry currently leads: MD, IL, CT, MI, CA,
- Kerry gained ground in the two states which are currently tied: CO and MO.
- Bush lost ground in 5 states in which he currently leads: FL, VA, NC, IN, OK
- Bush gained ground or stayed even in 8 states in which he currently leads: AR, OH, WV, AZ, SC, KY, GA, AL
In other words, my hypothesis bore out: Bush is generally more ahead in hates which favor him, the same for Kerry. Colorado went from a Bush lead to a tie.
Sorted by current difference
| State | Kerry | Bush | Current difference |
Net change Kerry |
last poll - current poll | MoE | Pollster |
| MD | 53 | 40 | +13 | -1 | 6/9 - 8/15 | 3.5 - 3.5 | Gonzolez Research |
| IL | 52 | 38 | +12 | -2 | 5/24 - 8/16 | 4.0 - 4.0 | Market Shares Corp. |
| CT | 49 | 39 | +10 | -11 | 6/28 - 8/17 | 3.2 - 3.0 | Quinnipiac University |
| OR | 54 | 43 | +9 | +2 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.9 - 3.7 | Zogby |
| NY | 53 | 45 | +8 | 0 | 6/14 - 8/9 | 2.6 - 2.9 | Quinnipiac University |
| WA | 51 | 43 | +8 | 0 | 8/2 - 8/17 | 4.2 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| NH | 51 | 43 | +8 | 0 | 1/30 - 8/21 | 4.2 - 4.3 | Zogby |
| PA | 52 | 44 | +8 | +1 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.2 - 3.3 | Zogby |
| IA | 52 | 45 | +7 | +5 | 7/30 - 8/19 | 4.4 - 4.4 | Zogby |
| NM | 44 | 50 | +6 | +5 | 7/26 - 8/21 | 4.4 - 4.4 | Zogby |
| WI | 51 | 46 | +5 | +3 | 7/30 - 8/24 | 3.9 - 3.9 | Zogby |
| MN | 50 | 45 | +5 | 0 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.8 - 3.8 | Zogby |
| MI | 48 | 45 | +3 | -8 | 8/4 - 8/24 | 4.0 - 4.3 | Survey USA |
| CA | 49 | 46 | +3 | -10 | 7/25 - 8/18 | 3.8 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| TN | 50 | 48 | +2 | +1 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.4 - 3.5 | Zogby |
| NV | 48 | 46 | +2 | +3 | 7/36 - 8/21 | 4.4 - 4.4 | Zogby |
| CO | 47 | 47 | 0 | +5 | 4/14 - 8/19 | 4.5 - 4.5 | Rasmussen |
| MO | 49 | 49 | 0 | +1 | 7/26 - 8/21 | 3.2 - 3.4 | Zogby |
| AR | 46 | 48 | -2 | -4 | 7/8 - 8/21 | 4.3 - 4.5 | Zogby |
| FL | 47 | 49 | -2 | +4 | 7/31 - 8/24 | 4.0 - 4.0 | Rasmussen |
| VA | 45 | 49 | -4 | + 1 | 7/8 - 8/22 | 3.8 - 3.7 | Survey USA |
| OH | 46 | 51 | -5 | 0 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 4.5 - 2.6 | Zogby |
| NC | 45 | 51 | -6 | +1 | 7/26 - 8/15 | 3.3 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| WV | 42 | 49 | -7 | -9 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 4.0 - 4.1 | Zogby |
| AZ | 39 | 47 | -8 | -9 | 7/18 - 8/22 | 5.0 - 4.9 | AZ State University |
| SC | 42 | 53 | -11 | -4 | 7/12 - 8/18 | 5.0 - 3.7 | Survey USA |
| IN | 40 | 52 | -12 | +4 | 6/24 - 8/18 | 4.0 - 4.0 | Bellwether Research |
| KY | 39 | 56 | -17 | -7 | 7/26 - 8/15 | 3.8 - 3.8 | Survey USA |
| GA | 38 | 54 | -18 | -5 | 8/2 - 8/18 | 3.0 - 3.0 | Strategic Vision |
| OK | 38 | 57 | -19 | +7 | 6/23 - 8/18 | 3.9 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| AL | 37 | 58 | -21 | -2 | 5/4 -8/23 | 3.7 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
Sorted by net change
| State | Kerry | Bush | Current difference |
Net change Kerry |
last poll - current poll | MoE | Pollster |
| OK | 38 | 57 | -19 | +7 | 6/23 - 8/18 | 3.9 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| IA | 52 | 45 | +7 | +5 | 7/30 - 8/19 | 4.4 - 4.4 | Zogby |
| NM | 44 | 50 | +6 | +5 | 7/26 - 8/21 | 4.4 - 4.4 | Zogby |
| CO | 47 | 47 | 0 | +5 | 4/14 - 8/19 | 4.5 - 4.5 | Rasmussen |
| FL | 47 | 49 | -2 | +4 | 7/31 - 8/24 | 4.0 - 4.0 | Rasmussen |
| IN | 40 | 52 | -12 | +4 | 6/24 - 8/18 | 4.0 - 4.0 | Bellwether Research |
| WI | 51 | 46 | +5 | +3 | 7/30 - 8/24 | 3.9 - 3.9 | Zogby |
| NV | 48 | 46 | +2 | +3 | 7/36 - 8/21 | 4.4 - 4.4 | Zogby |
| OR | 54 | 43 | +9 | +2 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.9 - 3.7 | Zogby |
| PA | 52 | 44 | +8 | +1 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.2 - 3.3 | Zogby |
| TN | 50 | 48 | +2 | +1 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.4 - 3.5 | Zogby |
| MO | 49 | 49 | 0 | +1 | 7/26 - 8/21 | 3.2 - 3.4 | Zogby |
| VA | 45 | 49 | -4 | + 1 | 7/8 - 8/22 | 3.8 - 3.7 | Survey USA |
| NC | 45 | 51 | -6 | +1 | 7/26 - 8/15 | 3.3 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| WA | 51 | 43 | +8 | 0 | 8/2 - 8/17 | 4.2 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| NY | 53 | 45 | +8 | 0 | 6/14 - 8/9 | 2.6 - 2.9 | Quinnipiac University |
| NH | 51 | 43 | +8 | 0 | 1/30 - 8/21 | 4.2 - 4.3 | Zogby |
| MN | 50 | 45 | +5 | 0 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.8 - 3.8 | Zogby |
| OH | 46 | 51 | -5 | 0 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 4.5 - 2.6 | Zogby |
| MD | 53 | 40 | +13 | -1 | 6/9 - 8/15 | 3.5 - 3.5 | Gonzolez Research |
| IL | 52 | 38 | +12 | -2 | 5/24 - 8/16 | 4.0 - 4.0 | Market Shares Corp. |
| AL | 37 | 58 | -21 | -2 | 5/4 -8/23 | 3.7 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| AR | 46 | 48 | -2 | -4 | 7/8 - 8/21 | 4.3 - 4.5 | Zogby |
| SC | 42 | 53 | -11 | -4 | 7/12 - 8/18 | 5.0 - 3.7 | Survey USA |
| GA | 38 | 54 | -18 | -5 | 8/2 - 8/18 | 3.0 - 3.0 | Strategic Vision |
| KY | 39 | 56 | -17 | -7 | 7/26 - 8/15 | 3.8 - 3.8 | Survey USA |
| MI | 48 | 45 | +3 | -8 | 8/4 - 8/24 | 4.0 - 4.3 | Survey USA |
| WV | 42 | 49 | -7 | -9 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 4.0 - 4.1 | Zogby |
| AZ | 39 | 47 | -8 | -9 | 7/18 - 8/22 | 5.0 - 4.9 | AZ State University |
| CA | 49 | 46 | +3 | -10 | 7/25 - 8/18 | 3.8 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| CT | 49 | 39 | +10 | -11 | 6/28 - 8/17 | 3.2 - 3.0 | Quinnipiac University |
Sorted by level of Bush support
| State | Kerry | Bush | Current difference |
Net change Kerry |
last poll - current poll | MoE | Pollster |
| AL | 37 | 58 | -21 | -2 | 5/4 -8/23 | 3.7 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| OK | 38 | 57 | -19 | +7 | 6/23 - 8/18 | 3.9 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| KY | 39 | 56 | -17 | -7 | 7/26 - 8/15 | 3.8 - 3.8 | Survey USA |
| GA | 38 | 54 | -18 | -5 | 8/2 - 8/18 | 3.0 - 3.0 | Strategic Vision |
| SC | 42 | 53 | -11 | -4 | 7/12 - 8/18 | 5.0 - 3.7 | Survey USA |
| IN | 40 | 52 | -12 | +4 | 6/24 - 8/18 | 4.0 - 4.0 | Bellwether Research |
| NC | 45 | 51 | -6 | +1 | 7/26 - 8/15 | 3.3 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| OH | 46 | 51 | -5 | 0 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 4.5 - 2.6 | Zogby |
| NM | 44 | 50 | +6 | +5 | 7/26 - 8/21 | 4.4 - 4.4 | Zogby |
| WV | 42 | 49 | -7 | -9 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 4.0 - 4.1 | Zogby |
| VA | 45 | 49 | -4 | + 1 | 7/8 - 8/22 | 3.8 - 3.7 | Survey USA |
| FL | 47 | 49 | -2 | +4 | 7/31 - 8/24 | 4.0 - 4.0 | Rasmussen |
| MO | 49 | 49 | 0 | +1 | 7/26 - 8/21 | 3.2 - 3.4 | Zogby |
| AR | 46 | 48 | -2 | -4 | 7/8 - 8/21 | 4.3 - 4.5 | Zogby |
| TN | 50 | 48 | +2 | +1 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.4 - 3.5 | Zogby |
| AZ | 39 | 47 | -8 | -9 | 7/18 - 8/22 | 5.0 - 4.9 | AZ State University |
| CO | 47 | 47 | 0 | +5 | 4/14 - 8/19 | 4.5 - 4.5 | Rasmussen |
| NV | 48 | 46 | +2 | +3 | 7/36 - 8/21 | 4.4 - 4.4 | Zogby |
| CA | 49 | 46 | +3 | -10 | 7/25 - 8/18 | 3.8 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| WI | 51 | 46 | +5 | +3 | 7/30 - 8/24 | 3.9 - 3.9 | Zogby |
| MI | 48 | 45 | +3 | -8 | 8/4 - 8/24 | 4.0 - 4.3 | Survey USA |
| MN | 50 | 45 | +5 | 0 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.8 - 3.8 | Zogby |
| IA | 52 | 45 | +7 | +5 | 7/30 - 8/19 | 4.4 - 4.4 | Zogby |
| NY | 53 | 45 | +8 | 0 | 6/14 - 8/9 | 2.6 - 2.9 | Quinnipiac University |
| PA | 52 | 44 | +8 | +1 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.2 - 3.3 | Zogby |
| WA | 51 | 43 | +8 | 0 | 8/2 - 8/17 | 4.2 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| NH | 51 | 43 | +8 | 0 | 1/30 - 8/21 | 4.2 - 4.3 | Zogby |
| OR | 54 | 43 | +9 | +2 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.9 - 3.7 | Zogby |
| MD | 53 | 40 | +13 | -1 | 6/9 - 8/15 | 3.5 - 3.5 | Gonzolez Research |
| CT | 49 | 39 | +10 | -11 | 6/28 - 8/17 | 3.2 - 3.0 | Quinnipiac University |
| IL | 52 | 38 | +12 | -2 | 5/24 - 8/16 | 4.0 - 4.0 | Market Shares Corp. |
Sorted by level of Kerry support
| State | Kerry | Bush | Current difference |
Net change Kerry |
last poll - current poll | MoE | Pollster |
| OR | 54 | 43 | +9 | +2 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.9 - 3.7 | Zogby |
| MD | 53 | 40 | +13 | -1 | 6/9 - 8/15 | 3.5 - 3.5 | Gonzolez Research |
| NY | 53 | 45 | +8 | 0 | 6/14 - 8/9 | 2.6 - 2.9 | Quinnipiac University |
| IL | 52 | 38 | +12 | -2 | 5/24 - 8/16 | 4.0 - 4.0 | Market Shares Corp. |
| PA | 52 | 44 | +8 | +1 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.2 - 3.3 | Zogby |
| IA | 52 | 45 | +7 | +5 | 7/30 - 8/19 | 4.4 - 4.4 | Zogby |
| WA | 51 | 43 | +8 | 0 | 8/2 - 8/17 | 4.2 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| NH | 51 | 43 | +8 | 0 | 1/30 - 8/21 | 4.2 - 4.3 | Zogby |
| WI | 51 | 46 | +5 | +3 | 7/30 - 8/24 | 3.9 - 3.9 | Zogby |
| MN | 50 | 45 | +5 | 0 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.8 - 3.8 | Zogby |
| TN | 50 | 48 | +2 | +1 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 3.4 - 3.5 | Zogby |
| CT | 49 | 39 | +10 | -11 | 6/28 - 8/17 | 3.2 - 3.0 | Quinnipiac University |
| CA | 49 | 46 | +3 | -10 | 7/25 - 8/18 | 3.8 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| MO | 49 | 49 | 0 | +1 | 7/26 - 8/21 | 3.2 - 3.4 | Zogby |
| MI | 48 | 45 | +3 | -8 | 8/4 - 8/24 | 4.0 - 4.3 | Survey USA |
| NV | 48 | 46 | +2 | +3 | 7/36 - 8/21 | 4.4 - 4.4 | Zogby |
| CO | 47 | 47 | 0 | +5 | 4/14 - 8/19 | 4.5 - 4.5 | Rasmussen |
| FL | 47 | 49 | -2 | +4 | 7/31 - 8/24 | 4.0 - 4.0 | Rasmussen |
| AR | 46 | 48 | -2 | -4 | 7/8 - 8/21 | 4.3 - 4.5 | Zogby |
| OH | 46 | 51 | -5 | 0 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 4.5 - 2.6 | Zogby |
| VA | 45 | 49 | -4 | + 1 | 7/8 - 8/22 | 3.8 - 3.7 | Survey USA |
| NC | 45 | 51 | -6 | +1 | 7/26 - 8/15 | 3.3 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| NM | 44 | 50 | +6 | +5 | 7/26 - 8/21 | 4.4 - 4.4 | Zogby |
| WV | 42 | 49 | -7 | -9 | 7/30 - 8/21 | 4.0 - 4.1 | Zogby |
| SC | 42 | 53 | -11 | -4 | 7/12 - 8/18 | 5.0 - 3.7 | Survey USA |
| IN | 40 | 52 | -12 | +4 | 6/24 - 8/18 | 4.0 - 4.0 | Bellwether Research |
| AZ | 39 | 47 | -8 | -9 | 7/18 - 8/22 | 5.0 - 4.9 | AZ State University |
| KY | 39 | 56 | -17 | -7 | 7/26 - 8/15 | 3.8 - 3.8 | Survey USA |
| GA | 38 | 54 | -18 | -5 | 8/2 - 8/18 | 3.0 - 3.0 | Strategic Vision |
| OK | 38 | 57 | -19 | +7 | 6/23 - 8/18 | 3.9 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
| AL | 37 | 58 | -21 | -2 | 5/4 -8/23 | 3.7 - 4.1 | Survey USA |
Method
- The numbers compared must me by a polling organization which,
- Has conducted a poll since August 5, the first day Swift Boat Vets for Truth ran an ad
- Has conducted a poll on or prior to August 5
- Is reputable enough in the opinion of RealClearPolitics.com to be included in their compendium of state level polls.
- The columns labeled "Kerry" and "Bush" reflect the results of the most recent poll.
- The backgrounds of the "state" column reflect the category the state is in according to Dave Leip's analytical method:
- If "Strong Bush", it appears red
- If "Strong Kerry", it appears blue
- If "Lean Bush", "Slight Bush", "Lean Kerry", or "Slight Kerry", or "tossup", it appears purple
- The numbers reflected in the "Bush" and "Kerry" columns reflect the result of the most recent poll taken after August 5, 2004
- The background of the "Current Difference" column appears
- Blue if Kerry's lead is greater than the most recent poll's margin of error
- Red if Kerry's net change is less than the most recent poll's margin of error
- Gray if Kerry's net change is within the most recent poll's margin of error
- The "Net Change Kerry" column is the sum of the differences between
- Kerry's gain between the most recent poll and immediately prior poll by the same polling organization, and,
- Bush's loss between the most recent poll and immediately prior poll by the same polling organization
- The background of the "Net Change Kerry" column appears
- Blue if Kerry's net change is greater than the lessor of the two polls' margin of error
- Red if Kerry's net change is less than the lessor of the two polls' margin of error
- Gray if Kerry's net change is within the lessor of the two polls' margin of error
For the following states, a pollster has not conducted surveys both on or before August 5 and after August 5:
| State | Kerry | Bush | Current net difference |
Net change Kerry |
last poll - current poll | MoE | Pollster |
| MA | 60 | 31 | +29 | +4 | 5/31 - 6/30 | 5.0 - 5.0 | Rasmussen |
| NJ | 49 | 39 | +10 | -3 | 8/2 - 9/23 | 3.1 - 3.3 | Quinnapac University |
| ME | 48 | 44 | +4 | +3 | 6/30 - 7/31 | 5.0 - 5.0 | Rasmussen |
| TX | 37 | 55 | -18 | -1 | 5/31 - 6/30 | 3.0 - 3.0 | Rasmussen |
| KS | 36 | 56 | -20 | -2 | 3/4 - 6/28 | 4.1 - 4.5 | Survey USA |
| UT | 22 | 67 | -45 | -14 | 2/19 - 5/12 | 5.0 - 3.2 | Desert News |
In the following states only one poll is available:
| State | Kerry | Bush | Current net difference |
Net change Kerry |
last poll - current poll | MoE | Pollster |
| DE | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| RI | 49 | 25 | +24 | n/a | 6/14 | 5.0 | Brown University |
| VT | 51 | 36 | +15 | n/a | 4/30 | n/a | Research 2000 |
| HI | 48 | 41 | +7 | n/a | 8/3 | 3.7 | Star-Bulletin |
| LA | 38 | 54 | -16 | n/a | 7/14 | 4.0 | MRI |
| SD | 35 | 51 | -16 | n/a | 5/22 | 3.5 | KELO |
| MT | 33 | 53 | -20 | n/a | 5/26 | 4.0 | Mason Dixon |
| AK | 33 | 56 | -23 | n/a | 6/30 | 4.0 | Dittman Research |
| MS | 30 | 61 | -29 | n/a | 4/21 | 5.8 | Missippi State University |
| ID | 55 | 25 | -30 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Greg Smith & Asc |
| NE | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| WY | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |